Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion     

Eric Blanger  Alain Vincent 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):114-125

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.  相似文献   

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Thorsten Wagener  Hoshin V. Gupta 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):378-387

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.  相似文献   

东北地区矿业开发态势与矿山环境地质问题综合研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

金洪涛  贾伟光  邸志强 《华南地质与矿产》2005,(3):50-54

在论述东北地区矿业开发态势的同时,阐述了区内能源矿产、金属矿产及非金属矿产开采引发的主要环境地质问题,针对区内复杂的矿山环境地质问题现状,提出了开展东北地区矿山环境地质综合研究问题的工作思路.  相似文献   

Water pollution in gold mining industry: a case study in Roşia Montană district, Romania     

R. M. Florea  A. I. Stoica  G. E. Baiulescu  P. Capotă 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(8):1132-1136

The preliminary study of streams and rivers from the Roşia Montană area revealed that the concntration of heavy metals— Cd, Mn, Cu, Pb, and Zn—are above accepted limits. The gold extraction method is based on flotation. The most important pollution sources are mine tailings. The determinations were performed for samples collected in: April 2004, July 2004, September 2004, November 2004, February 2005 and May 2005. The highest concentrations were found for cadmium in September 2004: 0.17 mg/L; for copper in September 2004: 1.38 mg/L; for manganese in July 2004: 239.4 mg/L; for lead in May 2005: 0.54 mg/L; and for zinc in September 2004: 35.37 mg/L;. This study involved three small rivers (streams) that flow into the Mureş River and finally into the Danube River, having a great impact on human health and environmental stability in the area. In May 2005, a sample of drinking water from the mining district was also collected.  相似文献   

Localization of mining-induced horizontal fractures along rock layer interfaces in overburden: field measurements and prediction   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

V. Palchik 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(1):68-80

The locations of mining-induced horizontal fractures along rock interfaces in the overburden of Donetsk Coal Basin were identified using an original experimental device. The device traps methane from horizontal fracture zone (100–fold coal seam thickness) over an active longwall mining excavation. Presence or absence of horizontal fractures along rock layer interfaces is correlated with physical characteristics of the overburden, such as thickness, uniaxial compressive strength of overburden rock layers, location of rock layer interfaces and thickness of extracted coal seams. As a result, a combined criterion based on these physical characteristics is proposed to predict the presence of overburden horizontal fracturing in coal mine operations.  相似文献   

Soil property variation mapping through data mining of soil category maps          下载免费PDF全文

Fei Du  A‐Xing Zhu  Lawrence Band  Jing Liu 《水文研究》2015,29(11):2491-2503

Spatial information on soil properties is an important input to hydrological models. In current hydrological modelling practices, soil property information is often derived from soil category maps by the linking method in which a representative soil property value is linked to each soil polygon. Limited by the area‐class nature of soil category maps, the derived soil property variation is discontinuous and less detailed than high resolution digital terrain or remote sensing data. This research proposed dmSoil, a data‐mining‐based approach to derive continuous and spatially detailed soil property information from soil category maps. First, the soil–environment relationships are extracted through data mining of a soil map. The similarity of the soil at each location to different soil types in the soil map is then estimated using the mined relationships. Prediction of soil property values at each location is made by combining the similarities of the soil at that location to different soil types and the representative soil property values of these soil types. The new approach was applied in the Raffelson Watershed and Pleasant Valley in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, United States to map soil A horizon texture (in both areas) and depth to soil C horizon (in Pleasant Valley). The property maps from the dmSoil approach capture the spatial gradation and details of soil properties better than those from the linking method. The new approach also shows consistent accuracy improvement at validation points. In addition to the improved performances, the inputs for the dmSoil approach are easy to prepare, and the approach itself is simple to deploy. It provides an effective way to derive better soil property information from soil category maps for hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

海域使用权属数据质量控制系统设计          下载免费PDF全文

张建丽  张云  宋德瑞  王飞  景昕蒂 《海洋开发与管理》2018,35(11):14-18

海域使用权属数据是海域使用科学研究和海域综合管理决策制定的重要依据。文章分析了海域使用权属数据质量控制的现状,研究了海域使用权属问题数据质量控制的判别方法。设计了计算机与人工校验相结合的数据质量控制系统,实现海域使用权属数据系统化的质量控制和管理,为海域使用统计和海域使用管理决策支持提供参考。  相似文献   

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

额河源流采金矿区不同恢复措施对矿区物种多样性和地上生物量的影响          下载免费PDF全文

许佳  祝晓瞳  苑塏烨 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):581-589

以额河源流采金后废弃矿区为研究对象，于2011—2015年期间，通过采取不同恢复措施从被破坏矿区草地植物多样性和生物量的角度分析植被恢复效果。结果表明：（1）不同恢复措施促使各植物群落的物种数增加了5%～30%,说明采取恢复措施使得矿区生态环境得到了一定程度的恢复。（2）综合植被群落结构、盖度和地上生物量、物种多样性指数分析，措施A5（推平+圈羊）、A4（推平+补水）、A3（推平+覆土+黑加仑）较其他措施恢复效果更为显著。（3）通过对各样地植被丰富度指数（R）、Shannon Wiener指数(H′)、Simpson指数（D）、Pielou (Jsw)指数与地上生物量分别进行回归分析,发现指数曲线拟合关系最好。表明物种多样性与地上生物量均存在较显著的正相关关系(P <0.05)。本研究可为类似矿区的植被恢复与重建提供参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

基于像元二分模型的地表植被覆盖度估算模块化设计与实现     

赵威成  张红华  马福义  叶欣 《北京测绘》2020,(3):285-288

地表植被覆盖度是的一种应用广泛的定量遥感产品,在水文、生态、区域变化等方面都具有重要的意义。像元二分模型是应用最多的一种遥感估算地表覆盖度的方法。目前,用遥感的方法进行地表植被覆盖度估算没有完整、系统的工具,用户只能逐步进行操作,效率低下,鉴于上述情况,本文运用IDL交互式数据语言,基于ENVI二次开发了一个植被覆盖度估算程序,取得了一定的成效,对遥感定量产品的生产、应用具有一定意义。  相似文献